Economic perspectives: Back to normality in 2021?

There should be increased positive news in the future regarding vaccine development against COVID-19. However, some questions remain open: how suitable is it for vaccinating the broad masses, is it without side effects and how will distribution of the vaccine be carried out?

Following the initial shock in the spring of 2020, it became clear that the various sectors were very differently affected by the crisis.

 

Although economic growth of around 4% is expected in Switzerland in 2021, we anticipate more of a k-shaped recovery of the economy. This is characterised by different developments of the sectors, which are counted among the winners or losers depending on their crisis resilience. There is also a cultural change that has been further accelerated by the crisis. Companies able to meet the additional demand for infrastructure in the field of digitalisation as well as those able to keep efficiency at a high level through cost savings and create location-independent structures are benefiting from this.

 

The current valuation differences on the stock markets show quite clearly that not all companies are prepared for these changes.

 

There will also be an urgent need this year for additional support programmes to overcome the coronavirus crisis. The debts resulting from these are crippling future growth and posing a challenge to future economic policy.